Issue 116

7 Mar: Since launching Cosmos 2581 (62902), Cosmos 2582 (62903) and Cosmos 2583 (62904) on 5 Feb 2025, Russia has maneuvered 2581 and 2582 into formation with one another. On 5 Mar the 2 satellites briefly came within <100m from one another. For its part, Cosmos 2583 has yet to maneuver, however it is flying at a slightly lower altitude than the 2581/2582 pair and passed both satellites on 7 Mar with a point of closest approach of <1km. The situation continues to evolve, but I worked with the COMSPOC team to analyze the orbital activities of all three satellites from 13 Feb through 7 Mar. Watch COMSPOC video of 2581/2582 Close Approach. Watch COMSPOC video of 2581/2582/2583 Close Approach. – All 3 satellites are in an 82.0 inclined orbit. Cosmos 2581 & 2582 have an average altitude of 588.2km while Cosmos 2583 has an average altitude of 587.5km. – Immediately after orbit insertion Cosmos 2582 was in “lead” position followed by Cosmos 2583 and then 2581. Cosmos 2581 and 2582 were at 586.6km average altitude while 2583 was at 588.5km, so both 2581 and 2582 drifted “ahead” of 2583. – On 15 Feb, 2582 increased its average altitude 2.8km to 589.4km, slowing its motion relative to both 2583 and 2581. -On 19-20 Feb 2581 does a series of burns to increase its average altitude 2.3km to 588.7km. At this point 2581’s average altitude is 0.6km less than 2582. – On 24-25 Feb 2582 lowers its average altitude to match 2581. Both satellites are orbiting at an average altitude of 588.4km. – These maneuvers lead to a series of 2581/2582 close approaches between 26 Feb to 3 Mar. The closest of these approaches was <100m. – On ~3 Mar 2582 makes a slight adjustment to its average altitude (~100m) resulting in 2581/2582 naturally maintaining a relative distance of ~0.1-4km. See Video. – Cosmos 2583 has not appeared to maneuver since arriving on orbit. As noted, its average altitude is lower than 2581/2582. As a result 2583 passed through the 2581/2582 formation on 7 Mar, resulting in several close approaches of less than 0.5km. See Video. Russia has released virtually no information regarding the mission of these satellites other than to say they were launched for the Ministry of Defense. Cosmos 2581 and 2582s’ coordinated maneuvers would at the very least enable satellite inspection and could indicate a counter-space capability test. Russia has conducted co-orbital counterspace testing in the past (see next article as a refresher) and has been accused by the United States as having two satellites on-orbit (Cosmos 2558 and Cosmos 2576) with counterspace capabilities. The relationship between Cosmos 2581 and 2582 warrants continued monitoring. Cosmos 2583 remains a mystery; unknown if it will eventually join the 2581/2582 formation, conduct some other mission, or has suffered some anomaly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7i3kZhRbd4https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vhMDVW4eRUE