Issue 117

7 Mar: China launched a Long March-3B with the TJS-15 (63157) (and another possible object, likely an apogee kick motor <63299>) from Xichang. According to official sources, the satellite has entered the planned orbit and will be “mainly used to verify multi-band and high-speed satellite communication technology”. After spending ~10 days in Geosynchronous Transfer Orbit, China conducted a circularization burn to place TJS-15 into Geostationary Orbit (GEO). TJS-15 is now at 90.3° E (due south of the Bay of Bengal) with a 0.0° inclination. Launch Video.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eS9jkqstra4

• As is typical for TJS satellites, China has released little information regarding the satellite’s capabilities and mission.

• Reporting from the Joint Commercial Operations cell noted, “The Yuan Wang 6 and Yuan Wang 7 telemetry tracking vessels were both be positioned in the Pacific Ocean to support this launch, suggesting it is of high importance.”

• Per Andrew Jones: “The lack of details on the TJS-15 satellite is consistent with statements on earlier TJS missions. The series, which mostly operates in geostationary orbit (GEO), is seen by Western analysts as potentially carrying out classified missions including signals intelligence, early warning missions and satellite inspection activities to support the People’s Liberation Army (PLA).”

• In the past 10 years China has launched 14 TJS satellites:

  • 2015 (1): TJS-1 (suspected SIGINT)

  • 2016 (0): No Launches

  • 2017 (1): TJS-2 (suspected Missile Warning)

  • 2018 (1): TJS-3 (suspected satellite inspection)

  • 2019 (1): TJS-4 (suspected SIGINT)

  • 2020 (1): TJS-5 (suspected Missile Warning)

  • 2021 (3): TJS-6 (suspected Missile Warning), TJS-7 (Unknown), & TJS-9 (suspected SIGINT)

  • 2022 (0): No Launches

  • 2023 (1): TJS-10 (unknown)

  • 2024 (3): TJS-11 (unknown), TJS-12 (unknown), TJS-13 (HEO, suspected Missile Warning)

  • 2025 (2): TJS-14 (unknown), TJS-15 (unknown)

• The second object noted, is labelled the TJS-15 apogee kick motor (AKM), has not maneuvered and is safely orbiting nearly 400km above the GEO belt.

11 Mar: China launched Long March-8 Y6 with the fifth batch of 18 Qianfan (SpaceSail) satellites from the Hainan Commercial Space Launch Site, Wenchang International Aerospace City, Hainan Province, China. The Qianfan Constellation is developed by Shanghai SpaceSail Technologies Co., Ltd. to “provide global users with low-latency, high-speed and ultra-reliable satellite broadband internet services”. Launch Video.

• This was the first Qianfan launch to use the LM-8 (previous launches had used the LM-6A) and was the first launch from Launch Pad 1, at Wenchang which has been under development for 18 months.

  – There are now 2 launch pads at the Hainan site are now operational, making it China’s first commercial spaceport equipped for a variety of launch needs.

• With this launch there are now 90 Qianfan satellites on orbit.

• Qianfan 73-90 are also known as, Group 5.

• Batch Updates:

  • Batch 1 (launched 6 Aug 2024) : 17 of 18 satellites have raised their average altitude to 1,068.9km. Qianfan 7 (60385) has not maneuvered and may be inoperable.

  • Batch 2 (launched 15 Oct 2024): 15 of 18 satellites have raised their average altitudes. There is a wide variance between the operational satellites, lowest being 814km and highest at 1,062km. Three of the satellites, Qianfan 27 (61560), Qianfan 28 (61561) and Qianfan 35 (61568) have not maneuvered.

  • Batch 3 (launched 5 Dec 2024): 18 of 18 satellites have raised their altitude. Two of the satellites, Qianfan 39, 40, and 42 are orbiting at 808km, 850km, and 811km respectively. The other 16 are orbiting between 913-1,069km with 5 of the satellites at 1,054km.

  • Batch 4: 18 of 18 satellites have raised their altitude. Satellites do not appear to have settled into an operating altitude and are orbiting at average altitudes ranging from 931-998kms.

Editor’s Note: as of 23 Mar 2025 none of the Qianfan 73-90 satellites were in the Spacetrack.org catalog, I’ll have a follow-up report once this information becomes available.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExYv9cubm4A

16 Mar: Chinese space operators increased the average altitude of the TJS-3 satellite (43874) ~66km. As a result the satellite is above the GEO belt and drifting West at a rate of 0.845° per day. TJS-3 is a suspected inspector satellite that has moved across the GEO belt exhibiting unusual behavior beginning with its launch in 2018 (see COMSPOC video & LSAS video). Prior to its latest maneuver, TJS-3 had been at 148.4°E placing it in the neighborhood with Gaofen-13 02 (55912) (148.2°E) and SJ-21 (49330) (144.9°E).

21 Mar: I’ve been tracking the status of Yaogan-35/36/39/42 triplet formations for nearly 2 years. I’ve noticed a 5 of the 15 formations appear to be struggling (or at least not following their previous pattern). Here is a status update on the 5 outliers.

Background:

Between 6 Nov 2021 and 10 Dec 2023 China conducted 15 LM-2D launches and placed 45 Yaogan satellites into 5 orbital planes (500km SMA and 35° inclination but different RAAN/twist.) Each launch contained 3 satellites which deployed into a Lead, Trail1, Trail2 formation. Each plane had 9 of these satellites, 3 YG-35, 3 YG-36 and 3 YG-39. It appears 4 of the 5 YG-35 triplets are experiencing some difficulties.

Problem Kids: (Lead/Trail1/Trail2)

• Yaogan-35 01 (49391/49390/49393): Launched 6 Nov 2021, this trio has completely fallen apart. The lead satellite has not increased its average altitude in over 11 months and is now orbiting under 400km and appears to be heading for re-entry. The Trail2 satellite has decreased its average altitude independent from the other two satellites several times since 2023 and as a result now has a significant RAAN offset from Trail1. For its part, the Trail1 satellite has maintained its average altitude since launch and recently increased it to 510km, which is the highest it has ever achieved.

• Yaogan-35 02 (52908/52907/59395): Original 3 satellites launched 23 June 2022. After Trail2 satellite failed (has re-entered), China launched Yaogan-42 01 on 2 April 2024 (mislabeled in Spacetrack.org catalog as YG-42 02). More recently, the Lead satellite last increased its average altitude on 7 Feb 2025 and has lost 17km through 23 Mar 2025. As a result it has increased its lead from Trail1 and Trail2 satellites significantly.

• Yaogan-36 02 (54045/54043/54042): Launched 14 Oct 2024. The lead satellite last increased its average altitude on 9 Dec 2024 and has lost 16km through 23 Mar 2025. As a result it has significantly increased its separation from Trail1 and Trail2 satellites. Trail1 and Trail2 satellites continue to maintain their average altitudes.

• Yaogan-35 03 (53320/53318/53316): Launched 29 Jul 2022. Trail2 satellite did not maintain its average altitude from late Jan 2024 – Oct 2024 and as a result lost 63km in altitude and now has a RAAN difference of over 48°. I was surprised to see the Trail2 satellite begin to increase its average orbit in Nov 2024. The satellite continues to slowly increase its SMA but it will never return to formation. The Lead satellite last increased its average altitude on 21 Feb and has dropped 15km in altitude and is increasing its separation with Trail1 (from 451 sec to 1,648 sec).

•  Yaogan-35 04 (53524/53526/53522): Launched 19 Aug 2022. This trio may be ok, but recently the Trail1 satellite increased its average altitude nearly 22km and rapidly fell behind the Lead and Trail2 satellites. Curious that the Trail1 satellite for YG-35 01 recently did something similar.

21 Mar: Many will recall that China launched SJ-25 (62485) on 6 Jan 2025 and announced that it would be “used for the verification of satellite fuel replenishment and life extension service technologies.” We quickly noted that China had placed SJ-25 into a co-planar orbit with SJ-21 which had been used to demonstrate “debris mitigation technology” (it captured a defunct Chinese satellite in GEO and dragged it into a graveyard orbit in early 2022.) SJ-25 appears to have made 3 stationkeeping maneuvers in the past 3 months and is maintaining its position at ~119.5°E. For its part, SJ-21 has not maneuvered but has naturally drifted west from 148.9°E at the time of SJ-25’s launch to 144.2°E on 21 Mar 2025. Without maneuvering SJ-21 is drifting West ~0.125° per day. At this rate it will “pass” SJ-25 in early October 2025.

23 Mar: After decreasing its average altitude to initiate an eastward drift in early February, Luch/Olymp 2 (55841) appears to have found a new neighbor/neighborhood. Russian space operators increased their satellite’s SMA nearly 262kms from 24 Feb – 8 Mar to rejoin the GEO belt at 62.0°E longitude. It appears its new intended collection target is Intelsat 39 (44476) which is at 61.9°E longitude. The Russian satellite is maintaining 15-60km separation from Intelsat 39. Typically Russia will keep Luch/Olymp 2 near its intended target for 4-5 months.