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Issue 24

Issue 24
05 Flash Archive · Members Only

Physics of Space War Report & Video

In October 2020, the Aerospace Corporation published a report describing how physics constrains space-to-space engagements of a conflict. The paper lays out five key concepts: satellites move quickly, satellites move predictably, space is big, timing is everything, and satellites maneuver slowly. - Space-to-space enga…

Author Greg Gillinger Published June 20, 2021

In October 2020, the Aerospace Corporation published a report describing how physics constrains space-to-space engagements of a conflict. The paper lays out five key concepts: satellites move quickly, satellites move predictably, space is big, timing is everything, and satellites maneuver slowly.

– Space-to-space engagements in a modern conflict would be fought

solely with un-crewed vehicles controlled by operators on the ground and heavily constrained by the limits physics.

– Space-to-space engagements would be deliberate and likely unfold

slowly because space is big and spacecraft can escape their predictable paths only with great effort

– To “control space” is not necessarily to physically conquer sectors of space but rather to reduce or eliminate adversary satellite capabilities while ensuring one retains the ability to freely operate their own space capabilities.

– Satellites Move Quickly but Predictably: Objects orbiting Earth have a strict relationship between altitude and speed. Objects at lower altitudes will always move more quickly than those at higher altitudes. The relationship between altitude, speed, and orbit shape makes satellite paths predictable.

– Space is Big: changing or repositioning a satellite in its orbit, known as a maneuver, can require significant time and energy. Due to the distances involved, planning for a kinetic satellite attack requires accounting for both the time and ΔV needed to execute the mission. Operators may spend weeks moving a satellite into an attack position.

– Timing is Everything: getting two satellites in the same spot is not intuitive. Therefore, it requires careful planning and perfect timing. Plane matching is crucial, if an attacker matches planes with a target it has the

initiative and can dictate when an engagement occurs. Once an orbital threat has matched planes and set up the timing through precise orbital phasing, many opportunities can arise to maneuver close enough to engage a target quickly.

– Satellites Maneuver Slowly: Because space is so big, catching up to a target takes careful planning and a long time to execute. Maneuver in LEO is bounded: If a satellite performs a forward phasing maneuver with a first burn of 115 m/s or more of ΔV, it will reenter Earth’s atmosphere and burn up. Similarly, if a satellite performs a backward phasing maneuver with a first burn of 350 m/s or more of ΔV, it will experience high radiation in the Van Allen belts. These two facts create natural bounds for how quickly a satellite can maneuver in LEO (500 km or 310 mi.)

– Types of Kinetic Engagements: ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) missiles, and on-orbit weapons

— Ground Based: Unlike orbital ASATs, it does not require extensive setup time to be operational-if the

target is within range, the missile can be used. Flyout times can be less than 10 minutes to LEO and less

than 5 hours to GEO, leaving the target little time to detect and react to an attack.

— Co-Orbital: may be launched months to years ahead of a potential conflict. Can more readily pursue a

maneuvering target than can a rapidly approaching ASAT missile.

– Electronic Warfare, Directed Energy, and Cyberattacks: threats utilizing the electromagnetic spectrum to

inflict either temporary (reversible) or permanent (irreversible) harm.

— Electronic Warfare: using radio frequencies to overwhelm an opponent’s signals with random noise

(jamming) and the purposeful mimicking of signals to send harmful commands or data (spoofing).

— Directed Energy Weapons: Can be either reversible or nonreversible. High-power microwaves interfere

with onboard electronics, with effects ranging from temporary malfunctioning to melting of critical

components and other permanent damage.

— Cyber: Target the data used and transmitted by a satellite. Can either target ground stations or target

the satellite directly. A cyberattack on a satellite can result in loss of information needed to perform its

mission, or even loss of control of the vehicle itself.

Issue 24 - Physics of Space War Report & Video

Original PDF links: Source 1 · Source 2