Issue 41

2 Feb 2022: The Washington Post published an article taking a closer look at China’s its first white paper on space-related activities in five years. The author highlights that the white paper underscores China’s larger ambition to shape international rules governing outer space and offers insights on Beijing’s plans to overcome significant obstacles facing its commercial space sector.

– China is an increasingly important space power and a potential challenger to U.S. interests. This document provides insights into China’s space priorities – in what is explicitly stated and for what is missing.

– The White Paper devotes an entire section to the global governance of space. Compared with China’s last space White Paper, the current paper articulates a more active role for Beijing in shaping international rules governing outer space.

– There are reasons to be cautious about Chinese attempts at space governance. In 2014, China and Russia proposed the Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space Treaty. Critics emphasize that this treaty lacks mechanisms for verifying compliance and allows China and Russia to continue developing ground-based anti-satellite weapons.

– The new White Paper points out that China views space capabilities as essential for economic development and building a “digital China,” which inherently rely on satellites for communication and transportation. Today, China has far more to lose from outer space becoming littered with space debris than it did in the past – a trend that will likely increase as China continues investing in space capabilities.

– China’s interest in making international rules for outer space may not necessarily align with U.S. interests. Instead, some of these rules may be aimed at binding U.S activities while allowing China to reap the soft power benefits of “acting responsibly.”

– There is no data to suggest that China’s commercial space sector is even close to rivaling the multibillion-dollar U.S. commercial space sector, other than the number of rocket launches – a count that measures mostly government-funded activity.

– China’s commercial space sector also faces serious challenges, including the absence of a domestic national space law, the continued dominance of state-owned enterprises in the economy and limited access to military-run launch sites.

– This latest White Paper suggests Beijing seeks to solve at least some of the challenges confronting China’s commercial space sector. China will try to “optimize the distribution of the space industry in the national industrial chain,” the document notes, regulate the licensing of civil space launches and “speed up the formulation of a national space law.”

– China’s White Paper does not offer concrete plans for lunar missions or an explicit commitment to carry them out. It states the objective to “continue studies and research on the plan for a human lunar landing, develop new-generation manned spacecraft.” The absence of any concrete proposals suggests that Chinese leaders may have concerns about investing in such an expensive endeavor or about China’s ability to accomplish such a goal.