Issue 46

April 2022: Three unclassified space threat reports were released: 1) US Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) “Challenges to Security in Space”; 2) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) “Space Threat Assessment 2022”; and 3) Secure World Foundation (SWF) “Global Counterspace Capabilities”. All are excellent, highly recommend at least reading their Executive Summaries/Introductions.

DIA Challenges to Security In Space:

– Between 2019 and 2021 the combined operational space fleets of China and Russia grew by approximately 70 percent.

– This recent and continuing expansion follows a period of growth (2015–2018) where China and Russia increased their combined satellite fleets by more than 200 percent.

– Both China and Russia integrate and mature space and counterspace capabilities into their national and warfighting strategies to challenge the United States…and continue to incorporate space scenarios into their military exercises.

– Both nations counterspace developments continue to mature

– Adversaries observed 30+ years of U.S. military operations supported by space systems and now seek ways to expand their capabilities and deny the U.S. a space-enabled advantage

– Expanding constellations of remote-sensing satellites are reducing all countries’ ability to conceal sensitive tests, evaluation activities, and military exercises and operations

– The probability of collisions of massive derelict objects in low Earth orbit (LEO) is growing and almost certainly will continue through at least 2030

CSIS Space Threat Assessment 2022

– More countries are investing in space and counterspace capabilities, and some countries are realigning military organizations, doctrine, and strategy to include or better reflect space and counterspace capabilities.

– Russia has worked to maintain the prowess the Soviet Union held in the space domain with declining success.

– China has made civil, intelligence, and military space capabilities a priority as it continues to invest in and plan for greater access to space in the coming decade,

– CSIS identified and analyzed four key counterspace events in 2021: 1) Chinese FOBS test; 2) SJ-21 activities; 3) Russia’s ASAT test; and 4) Russian Jamming in Ukraine

SWF Global Counterspace Capabilities

– An increasing number of countries are looking to use space to enhance their military capabilities and national security

– The growing use of, and reliance on, space for national security has also led more countries to look at developing their own counterspace capabilities that can be used to deceive, disrupt, deny, degrade, or destroy space systems.

– Today there are increased incentives for development, and potential use, of offensive counterspace capabilities. There are also greater potential consequences from their widespread use that could have global repercussions well beyond the military, as huge parts of the global economy and society are increasingly reliant on space applications.

– SWF details the entire history of counterspace development for ALL nations.