Issue 47

Analysis of US ASAT Test Moratorium

1 May 2022: RAND published blog from Bruce McClintock, RAND's lead for the Space Enterprise Initiative. In it McClintock asserts, that the United States has set an important example others might follow and took an important first step towards a binding, international ban on destructive anti-satellite testing. This is a…

1 May 2022: RAND published blog from Bruce McClintock, RAND’s lead for the Space Enterprise Initiative. In it McClintock asserts, that the United States has set an important example others might follow and took an important first step towards a binding, international ban on destructive anti-satellite testing. This is a ban that many have recommended and been years in the making. Other excerpts below.

– U.S. thinking on a total test ban has evolved rapidly over the last year.

– In early 2021 the United States National Submission to the United Nations regarding reducing space threats through norms, rules, and principles of responsible behaviors acknowledged that “failure to mitigate generation of space debris, especially long-lived space debris, during ASAT tests or other activities, would impact the outer space environment and could negatively affect the ability of States to use space for peaceful purposes.”

– The Russian destructive ASAT test in Nov 2021 shocked the world…and appears to have catalyzed the United States to commit to a more-comprehensive ban on ASAT testing.

– In Dec 2021, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks said the DoD “would like to see all nations agree to refrain from anti-satellite weapons testing that creates debris, which pollutes the space environment, risks damaging space objects, and threatens the lives of current and future space explorers.”

– The U.S. has set a good example that other nations could follow-committing to a ban on destructive direct-ascent ASAT missile tests without any caveats regarding the length of debris generation.

– The most optimistic path to a legally binding ASAT test ban is the United Nations Open Ended Working Group, schedule to meet in May.