Issue 93

Take a Lap? 7 YG-35/36 Trail2 Satellites Decrease SMA

Seven YG-35/36 Trail2 satellites decreased their altitudes, changing the timing and geometry of multiple lead-trail formations.

20 Mar: Checking in on the YG-35/36/39 satellites it appears that a significant number have (at least temporarily) fallen out of the “lead-trail1-trail2” formation. On ~29 Jan 2024 seven of the Trail2 satellites began decreasing their altitudes, thus increasing their orbital velocity (thanks again for the 10:1 explanation Jack!) As a result the Trail2 satellites for seven of the triplets passed both Trail1 and Lead satellites in early-Feb. In Dec 2023 the average time between YG-35 Trail1 & Trail2 was 1min 02sec. On Mar 20 the time difference was 40min 13sec. The average time difference for the 5 YG-36 triplets has increased from ~2min 47sec in December 2023 to ~32min 17sec in Mar 2024. The Lead to Trail1 time differential has remained relatively unchanged. The newest satellites, the YG-39s all appear to be holding their original formation.

The Good:

6 of the 15 triplets (40%) appear to be in “standard” formation. There appears to be some correlation with launch dates as only the more recently launched YG-39 triplets (01-05) appear to be maintaining their relative positions with one another. YG-39-01-05 are all in what was the standard formation with the average Lead-Trail1 being ~5min 30sec and Trail1-Trail2 at ~1min 49sec. I’m counting YG-36-05 as still being “good” but it’s formation stretching out, Lead-Trail1 ~3min 17sec and Trail1-Trail2 ~3min 28sec.

Formation Adjustment?

Trail2 satellites for all of the YG-35 triplets and 4 of 5 YG-36 triplets decreased their altitudes on ~29 Jan 2024. YG-35 Trail1-Trail2 time is now over 40min. For YG-36 01-04 triplets Trail1-Trail2 time difference increased from 2min 47sec in Dec 2023 to 32min 17sec in Mar 2024. The average Lead-Trail1 has remained steady ~6min 02sec in Dec 2023 and ~5min 43sec in Mar 2024. These averages do not include the 2 wayward satellites described below.

The Ugly:

Two of the 45 satellites continue their slow orbital decay and have shown no signs of maneuverability for over a year. YG-35-02C last maneuvered in Nov 2022 and its SMA is now 351.2km and dropping. YG-36-01B last maneuvered in Jan 2023 and now has an SMA of 407.6km and also continues to decline.

China likely executed a planned formation adjustment for 7 of the 15 triplets on 29 Jan 2024. It will be interesting to see if the 7 Trail2 satellites increase their altitudes and re-form with Lead and Trail2 satellites in the coming weeks.

A Graphical Look at YG-35/36/39 Formations

SMA declines began ~29 Jan 2024 for seven Trail2 satellites (celestrak.org).

“Typical” YG-39-03 Mar 2024

YG-35-03 Formation Dec 2023

YG-35-03 “Formation” Mar 2024 - Appears Trail2 (05A) Now Lagging (spaceaware.io)

My Numbers Behind the Analysis

Nominal Example: Trail1 YG-36 03 - SMA Increased Every ~3-4 Weeks (celestrak.org)

Nominal Example: Trail2 YG-39 05 - Frequent SMA Adjustments (celestrak.org)

Trail2 YG-35 04

Trail2 YG-35 03

Trail2 YG-35 01

Trail2 YG-35 05

Trail2 YG-36 04

Trail2 YG-36 03

Trail2 YG-36 02