Issue 144

01 Threat Analysis · Russia · GEO

Welcome to the Belt: Cosmos 2589 Arrives…Visited by USA 325

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 4, 2026

3 May 2026: As we noted in previous Flash editions, Cosmos 2589 (64467) had nearly completed its orbit circularization and USA 325 (51281) looked to be heading in its general direction to potentially observe. From 22-30 April Russia conducted a series of maneuvers to complete Cosmos 2589’s nearly 5-month journey from its highly elliptical geosynchronous orbit to a nearly perfect circular orbit. For its part USA 325 arrived in vicinity of Cosmos 2589 at 98.0°E on ~28 April. Space-track.org’s latest USA 325 orbit data was 6 Jan 2026, so I turned to Joe, Bob and Andy at COMSPOC_OPS for some help…the team from Exton, PA did not disappoint! COMSPOC data shows that USA 325 is now positioned in the vicinity of Cosmos 2589. In their current orbits there are 2 close approaches (<50km) every 24 hours. Closest approach to date has been 13km with lighting conditions favorable for USA 325 to observe Cosmos 2589.

– Between mid-November 2025 and 30 April Russia reduced the eccentricity of Cosmos 2589’s orbit from .365 to .00013. Apogee to perigee difference went from 30,700+ to 11.3km! (see graphic)

– The gradual removal of eccentricity by COSMOS 2589 resulted in the narrowing of it’s east-west span every day, until it arrived at ~98.0°.

– In addition to raising perigee and lowering apogee, between 3 Apr- 3 May Russia decreased Cosmos 2589’s inclination by half, from 0.106° down to 0.052°.

– Based on COMSPOC_OPS data, USA 325 was following Cosmos 2589. On 19 April, COSMOS 2589 was actually going around USA 325 due to the eastward drift of USA 325. (see graphic)

– It appears USA 325 initially overshot Cosmos 2589. Once COSMOS 2589 settled out at 98.0°, USA 325 turned around and came back.

– USA 325 is 8x more inclined than COSMOS 2589 (0.438° v 0.052° respectively), so any close approach opportunities are limited to 2x/day.

Editor’s Comment: Cosmos 2589 is Russia’s first inspector satellite in Geosynchronous orbit. Developed by the same company which brought us the Nivelir co-orbital system now operating in LEO, and having already deployed/tested one highly maneuverable sub-satellite (Cosmos 2590) we now wait to see what Russia does next. Will Cosmos 2589 remain in one location, begin patrolling GEO similar to China’s SY-12 01/02 & US GSSAP systems, or deploy more sub-satellites? Stay Tuned!

Nov 2025 – May 2026: Cosmos 2589 slowly circularizes orbit (celestrak.org)

19 Apr 2026: Cosmos 2589 Orbit (red) Goes Around USA 325 (blue) as USA 325 Transits East (COMSPOC_OPS)

1 May 2026 ~2100Z: USA 325 is 13km from Cosmos 2589 with Favorable Solar Conditions
(COMSPOC_OPS)

29 Mar – 3 May: USA 325 (green) moves east & toward Cosmos 2589 (red) as the latter circularizes its orbit
(COMSPOC_OPS)

1-3 May 2026: USA 325 (blue) & Cosmos 2589 (red
(COMSPOC_OPS)

Graph showing the range between Cosmos 2589 & USA 315 (green) and the sun geometry (black). The range is on the left-hand axis & solar angle is on the right axis. Obtuse Angle (>90°) favors USA 325 observing Cosmos 2589. Note neither satellite had ideal conditions 27-30 April, then USA 325 maneuvered to improve its position at point of closest approach 1-2 May.
(COMSPOC_OPS)

27 Apr 2026: Screen Capture from COMSPOC_OPS Video (left) & s2a-systems telescope image. USA 325 heading West to set up POCA with Cosmos 2589. (COMSPOC_OPS & s2a-systems)

02 Proximity Operations · Russia · LEO

Cosmos 2581 & 2583 RPO within 3m

1 May 2026: COMSPOC_OPS reported that the rendezvous proximity operations between Cosmos 2581, 2582 and 2583 (62902, 62903 & 62904) are continuing. Their latest reporting was specific to a 28 April close approach between Cosmos 2581 and 2583 in which the two objects reportedly were as near as 3m from one another. From COMSPOC_OPS release: Using radar tracking data via @LeoLabs_Space & processed through COMSPOC SSA Suite, COMSPOC_OPS analysts “observed a complex proximity event involving Russian satellites: COSMOS 2581, 2582, 2583, and Object F (a subsatellite released by 2583). The highlight:

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 4, 2026

From COMSPOC_OPS release: Using radar tracking data via @LeoLabs_Space & processed through COMSPOC SSA Suite, COMSPOC_OPS analysts “observed a complex proximity event involving Russian satellites: COSMOS 2581, 2582, 2583, and Object F (a subsatellite released by 2583). The highlight: COSMOS 2581 and 2583 achieved a closest approach of ~3 meters on 28 April at UTC, with near-zero relative velocity. This wasn’t a coincidental pass — COSMOS 2583 performed several fine maneuvers to maintain this tight configuration. Meanwhile, COSMOS 2582 trailed the formation at sub-100 km range, while Object F passed within 15 km of 2582 and within 10 km of 2581 — neither maneuvered. For context: in late 2025 to now, we tracked these same COSMOS satellites performing 3-object RPO. These satellites launched 5 February 2025. Whatever Russia is testing, it’s sophisticated.”

Watch COMSPOC_OPS Video.

🛰️Russian satellites multi-object proximity event in LEO

Radar tracking data via @LeoLabs_Space, processed through COMSPOC SSA Suite.

This week we observed a complex proximity event involving Russian satellites: COSMOS 2581, 2582, 2583, and Object F (a subsatellite released by… pic.twitter.com/3nDkcOmTuD
— COMSPOC_OPS (@COMSPOC_OPS) May 1, 2026

Screen Capture from COMSPOC_OPS Video Showing Cosmos 2581 & 2583 separated by only 3m (COMSPOC_OPS)

03 Launch Analysis · Russia · LEO

Russia Launches Four Imagery Satellites

23 April 2026: Russia launched an Angara-1.2 from Plesetsk with Cosmos 2615, 2616, 2617, & 2618 (68826-29). All four satellites are OO-MKA imagery satellites and join 6 others in orbit . Launch Video .

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 4, 2026

23 April 2026: Russia launched an Angara-1.2 from Plesetsk with Cosmos 2615, 2616, 2617, & 2618 (68826-29). All four satellites are OO-MKA imagery satellites and join 6 others in orbit.

Launch Video.

– Cosmos 2615-18 have an SMA of ~330km, presumably to maximize imagery resolution. All are inclined 96.6°. These values are close to those of previously launched OO-MKA spacecraft.

– Per usual, Bart Hendrickx provided excellent analysis on the nasaspaceflight.com forum (thank Bart!) Specifically:

“The orbits (of Cosmos 2615-18) are similar to those of earlier satellites in the EO MKA/OO MKA series (Cosmos-2551, 2555, 2560, 2568, 2574, 2575, 2577-2578, 2591-2592-2593-2594).”
“With the latest launch, ten of these satellites are now in orbit, which can be divided into three groups:
- Cosmos-2575/2578: launched in February and September 2024, both have been maintaining an average altitude of around 343 km since May and June 2025 respectively. Although their orbital planes are separated by about 6°, they pass over roughly the same region of Earth with a 45-minute interval.
- Cosmos-2591/2592/2593/2594: launched together in August 2025, they all have an average altitude of 284 km. They are in the same plane and pass over the same region of Earth with an interval of 22 minutes. (see graphic)
- (Cosmos 2515/16/17/18), which are in an orbital plane in between that of the two other groups (separated by about 13° from that of the other quartet and about 26°/32° from Cosmos-2575/2578.”
“There can be little doubt that these satellites are used for optical reconnaissance. They seem to have advanced electric propulsion capabilities to maintain stable low orbits for lengthy periods of time. The same goes for Kosmos-2572, now orbiting at around 300 km, but this appears to belong to a different type.”

Russia Deployed Cosmos 2591-94 With Equal Separation to Reduce Revisit Delay

(saberastro.com)

Angara 1.2 Prepares for Launch (nasaspaceflight.com)

Russia Continues to Build out
OO-MKA Constellation.
Cosmos 2615-18 Have13.1° West RAAN Offset from Cosmos 2591-94
(saberastro.com)

04 Launch Analysis · Russia · Launch Systems

Russia Conducts Test Launch of Soyuz-5

30 April 2026: Russia launched the first Soyuz-5 launch vehicle from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan. There was a mass-simulator on board, no active satellites. The launch was sub-orbital and the mass-simulator re-entered over the Pacific Ocean. According to Roscosmos, the first and second stages of the rocket performed as expected. Soyuz-5 is a two-stage, medium-lift launch vehicle powered by liquid oxygen (LOX) and kerosene (RP-1).Launch Video . - Per Anatoly Zak russiaspaceweb.com : “The launch vehicle headed north before turning east...the first stage , propelled by the RD-171MV engine

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 4, 2026

– Per Anatoly Zak russiaspaceweb.com:

“The launch vehicle headed north before turning east…the first stage, propelled by the RD-171MV engine, operated for 2 minutes and 59 seconds, before separating at Launch+179.00 seconds and crashing in the Sverdlovsk Region of Russia. Five seconds later, the payload fairing, designed to protect the payload, split into two sections and separated as well at L+185.00 seconds.”
“The RD-0124MS engine of the second stage ignited shortly before the separation of the first stage and, initially, fired through a lattice structure connecting the two stages. Once separated, the second stage turned east in a so-called “dog-leg” maneuver to ensure its eventual splashdown in the Pacific Ocean.”
“The payload fairing separated L+3 minutes 5 seconds into the flight, during the operation of the second stage.”
“The second-stage engine began throttling down at L+560 seconds and was cut off around 570 seconds into the flight, after a roughly 6.5-minute burn and just short of orbital velocity. The booster then began a long descent and reentry into the Earth’s atmosphere. As a result, the flight was expected to be suborbital with its mass simulator, known as GMM (from the Russian Gabaritno-Massovy Maket),” remaining attached to the second stage.
“After the second-stage engine cutoff, the simulation of the split between the dummy payload and the second stage was conducted at L+9 minutes and 32 seconds after liftoff (L+572.00 seconds), near the peak of the suborbital trajectory.”

– Per Mike Wall Space.com article:

“The Soyuz 5’s homegrown nature took on added importance for Russia in February 2022, when the nation invaded Ukraine, which has long been a powerhouse of rocket design and manufacturing. That invasion is ongoing, so Ukraine is also putting its rocketry expertise to use against Russia these days.”
“The (Soyuz 5) rocket is comparable in size and lifting power to SpaceX‘s workhorse Falcon 9; the Soyuz 5 can haul about 20 tons (18 metric tons) to low Earth orbit, compared to 25.1 tons (22.8 metric tons) for the SpaceX launcher. But the Falcon 9’s first stage is reusable, whereas the Soyuz 5 is a completely expendable vehicle.”

Soyuz-5 Heads to the Launch Pad
(nasaspaceflight.com)

Soyuz-5 at Integration Facility
(@RussianSpaceWeb via X)

Soyuz-5 Vertical at Baikonur (left) & Liftoff (Right)
(@RussianSpaceWeb via X)

05 Threat Analysis · China · GEO

China: TJS-10 Halts In Vicinity of US AEHF Satellite

1 May 2026: TJS-10 (58204) increased its SMA ~52.4km from 28-30 April. The maneuver halted TJS-10's eastward drift and the satellite is now maintaining its position at 92.4° E longitude. I had previously noted that TJS-10 was heading toward a flyby with Cosmos 2589 (64467) at 98.0°E. With this latest maneuver this is no longer the case. In its current position, TJS-10 is in vicinity of two US satellites: AEHF 5 (44481), one of six Advanced Extremely High Frequency satellites that provide global, secure, jam-resistant, and survivable communications for high-priority U.S. military ground, sea, a

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 4, 2026

1 May 2026: TJS-10 (58204) increased its SMA ~52.4km from 28-30 April. The maneuver halted TJS-10’s eastward drift and the satellite is now maintaining its position at 92.4° E longitude. I had previously noted that TJS-10 was heading toward a flyby with Cosmos 2589 (64467) at 98.0°E. With this latest maneuver this is no longer the case.

In its current position, TJS-10 is in vicinity of two US satellites:

AEHF 5 (44481), one of six Advanced Extremely High Frequency satellites that provide global, secure, jam-resistant, and survivable communications for high-priority U.S. military ground, sea, and air assets. AEHF uses EHF (Extremely High Frequency) band for uplinks and the SHF (Super High Frequency) band for downlinks and is capable of supporting data rates up to 8 Mbps.
SBIRS GEO 5 (48618), one of six Space Based Infrared System Geosynchronous Earth Orbit satellites providing 24/7 global surveillance, detecting infrared signals from missile launches, expanding technical intelligence, and enhancing battlefield awareness.
Readers may recall TJS-15 (King of the West) (63157) paid a visit to SBIRS GEO 5 in September 2025. TJS-15 remains in the area. (see graphic)

None of the satellites (TJS-10, TJS-15, AEHF 5 or SBIRS GEO 5) are co-planar (matching inclination and RAAN).

30 Apr 2026: TJS-10 Located West of AEHF 5
(POCA =210km)
TJS-15 Located East of SBIRS GEO 5 (POCA = 425km)(saberastro.com)

Feb-Apr 2026: TJS-10 Maneuver History
(celestrak.org)

06 Constellation Update · China · LEO

China Launches More Guowang Test Satellites

24 Apr 2026: China launched a Long March-2D with four “Satellite Internet Technology Test Satellites” (68831-68834) from Xichang. According to official sources, the satellites entered their preset orbits successfully. This launch closely resembles a previous of Guowang Test satellites from 1 April 2025 (63429-63431) and is likely related to China SatNet’s plans to develop/implement an “inner shell” of communication satellites. These test satellites are orbiting ab about ½ the average altitude of operational Guowang satellites. Launch Video .

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 4, 2026

– 68831-34 are co-planar with equal RAAN and Inclination (55.0°). There is a slight SMA variance between all 4 satellites (505.4-508.5km). As a result the satellites are beginning to separate from one another (see 10:1 rule). Once China has separated the satellites by the desired distance they will likely match SMAs to maintain a constant relative distance.

– By my count, with this launch there are now 23 Guowang test satellites in orbit.

– It appears China intends to test 68831-34 with 3 Guowang test satellites (63429-31) launched on 1 April 2025.

Both launches used a LM-2D from Xichang and carried 4 satellites into 55° inclined orbits.
- 63428 failed and re-entered on 16 Oct 2025.
- The three remaining satellites have recently conducted a series of maneuvers to increase their SMA ~21.5km to an identical 474.3km. Unknown if China intends to eventually match SMA between the two sets of test satellites.
- 63429 is ~913km behind 63430 and ~791km ahead of 63431.
China has placed the 68831-34 group into an orbit with an ~8.2° west RAAN offset from the 63429-31 group. China also launched the newer group into an ~50km higher orbit.
Per China In Space: The satellites will test “Upgrades…included direct-to-device services and the joining of terrestrial and orbital networks. GalaxySpace, a commercial satellite manufacturer, made at one of the test satellites, while two were produced by Changguang Satellite Technology Co Ltd. The Harbin Institute of Technology Satellite Technology Co Ltd also developed one of the satellites.”

LM-2D LiftOff from Xichang
(nasaspaceflight.com)

Patch-Off Competition:

26 Apr 2026 (Left) vs 1 Apr 2025 (Right)
(nasaspaceflight.com)

4 Test Satellites Beginning to Separate Due to Slight SMA Variance
(saberastro.com)

Newest Test Satellites have Identical Inclination (55°) and an 8.2° West RAAN Offset from Test Satellites Launched
1 Apr 2025
(saberastro.com)

Prepatory Maneuvers? All 3 Remaining HJS-6 Satellites Increasing SMA

(celestrak.org)

Guowang (China SatNet) Test Launch Summary:

– The other Guowang test satellites and all of the current Guowang operational satellites have SMAs >1,100km. 68831-34 and 63429-31 orbits are at less than ½ of the other Guowang satellites and are likely the first test satellites for Guowang’s planned inner-shell.

– Per Andrew Jones SpaceNews Article from Apr 2021:

Spectrum allocation filings submitted to the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) by China in September 2020 revealed plans to construct two similarly named “GW” low Earth orbit constellations totaling 12,992 satellites.
The filings indicate plans for GW to consist of sub-constellations ranging from 500-1,145 kilometers in altitude with inclinations between 30-85 degrees. The satellites would operate across a range of frequency bands.

– Guowang Test Launch Summary: China has conducted 9 test launches. 3 launches to 86.5° Inclination, 4 launches to 50.0° inclination, and 2 launches to 55.0° inclination.

Test Launch 1* (9 Jul 2023): 2 sats (57288 & 57289) on LM-2C from Jiquan.
- 86.5° inclination, 1,111km SMA
Test Launch 2* (23 Nov 2023): 3 sats (58425, 58426, 58427) on LM-2D from Xichang
- 50.0° inclination, 1,104km SMA
Test Launch 3* (5 Dec 2023): 1 sat (58505) on Jielong-3 from Yellow Sea.
- 86.5° inclination, 1,111km SMA
Test Launch 4* (30 Dec 2023): 3 sats (58691, 58692, 58693) on LM-2C from Jiuquan
- 50.0° inclination, 1,104km SMA
Test Launch 5 (30 Nov 2024) 1 sat (62186) on LM-2C from Wenchang
- 50.0° inclination, 1,104km SMA
Test Launch 6 (1 Apr 2024): 4 sats (63428-63431) on LM-2D from Jiuquan
- 55.0° inclination, 450-470km SMA
- 63428 de-orbited 16 Oct 2025
- 63429, 63430, 63431 have recently increased SMA from ~450km to 470km
Test Launch 7 (16 Sep 2025): 4 sats (65617-65620) on LM-2C from Jiuquan
- 50.0° inclination, 1,104km SMA
Test Launch 8 (11 Apr 2026): 1 sat (68687) on Jielong-3 from Yellow Sea
- 86.5° inclination, 1,004km SMA (will likely raise to 1,111km over time…)
Test Launch 9 (24 Apr 2026): 4 sats (68831-68834) from LM-2D from Jiuquan
- 55.0° inclination, ~507km SMA

* Denotes launches occurring prior to first operational LEO Guowang launch 16 Dec 2024

Launch Preparations (left) and Big Red Board of Success (above) (nasaspaceflight.com)

07 Electronic Warfare · Iran · Multi-Domain

Iran Non-Kinetic Jamming Since Feb 2026

30 April 2026: According to reporting by Matt Burgess of WIRED , since the start of the conflict on February 28, 2026, Iran has significantly expanded its use of non-kinetic electronic warfare (EW). Iran’s campaign centers on GNSS jamming, spoofing, and satellite communications disruption, targeting space-enabled systems such as GPS, AIS, and SpaceX Starlink. While the effects are seen in the space domain, operations are largely executed from ground-based transmitters and EW infrastructure. The result is widespread denial of navigation, degraded communications, and increased information contro

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 4, 2026

By Dr. Larissa Beavers

30 April 2026: According to reporting by Matt Burgess of WIRED, since the start of the conflict on February 28, 2026, Iran has significantly expanded its use of non-kinetic electronic warfare (EW). Iran’s campaign centers on GNSS jamming, spoofing, and satellite communications disruption, targeting space-enabled systems such as GPS, AIS, and SpaceX Starlink. While the effects are seen in the space domain, operations are largely executed from ground-based transmitters and EW infrastructure. The result is widespread denial of navigation, degraded communications, and increased information control, affecting both military operations and civilian systems across the region.

Summary of Iranian Non-Kinetic Jamming: 28 Feb – 30 Apr 2026:

Space-Enabled Systems

GNSS (GPS / AIS)Over 1,100 vessels impacted near the Strait of Hormuz

Effects observed:

Loss of navigation signals
False positioning (ships appearing inland or at airports)

L EO Satellite Internet (Starlink)

Connectivity is disrupted by up to ~80% in affected regions
Targeted due to use by:
- Protesters and civilian populations
- Foreign intelligence collection
- Potential military communications relay

Assessed Sources of Capability

External Support

Potential reliance on Chinese-origin technologies- Likely part of a transactional relationship (energy exports for tech support)
Possible integration of Russian EW systems, including:
- Krasukha-4 (broadband jamming)
- Murmansk-BN (long-range communications disruption)

Indigenous Platforms

CobraV8 Jamming platform

Jamming in Strait of Hormuz
WIRED

Krasukha-4 Jammer
Secure World Foundation

Murmansk-BN Jammer
Secure World Foundation

08 Impact Assessment · Iran · Multi-Domain

Iran Non-Kinetic Jamming Since Feb 2026 Part 2

Iran’s non-kinetic campaign has produced measurable operational effects across navigation, communications, and the broader information environment. Disruptions to GPS and satellite-based systems have increased the risk to maritime activity while degrading both civilian and military communications capabilities. Concurrently, these actions have enabled greater control over information flow by limiting external connectivity and coordination. Supporting cyber activity has also been observed, though it remains relatively low in sophistication and is primarily focused on disruption and signaling rat

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 4, 2026

By Dr. Larissa Beavers

Summary of Iranian Non-Kinetic Jamming Since 28 Feb – 30 Apr 2026:

Operational Effects

Navigation Denial

Disruption to maritime traffic and global shipping routes
Increased risk in high-traffic chokepoints (e.g., Strait of Hormuz)

Communications Degradation

Reduced the effectiveness of satellite-based internet and comms systems
Impact on both civilian and military users

Information Control

Restriction of external communications
Limitations of protest coordination and data flow

Cyber Activity (Supporting Operations)

Iranian-aligned actors conducted:
- Distributed Denial-of-Service (DDoS) attacks
- Basic reconnaissance operations
Targeted entities:
- United States networks
- Israeli networks
Assessment:
- Operations were disorganized and low sophistication
- Relied on primitive tools and techniques
- Likely intended for:
  - Disruption
  - Signaling rather than sustained cyber effects

Cyber Dragonz Islamic Resistance

Resecurity

Recruitement Post for Islamic Resistance

Resecurity

Image produced using AI based on references noted above

09 Visual Intelligence · Space

Pics o’ the Fortnight

“Chang'e-7 mission patch, showing lander, rover, shadowed crater hopper/probe, orbiter and Queqiao-2 relay satellite. Launch NET August.” ( @AJ_FI via X )

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 4, 2026

“Chang’e-7 mission patch, showing lander, rover, shadowed crater hopper/probe, orbiter and Queqiao-2 relay satellite. Launch NET August.”

(@AJ_FI via X)

A new study has shown that the DART spacecraft’s collision with the moon asteroid Dimorphos in September 2022 had more significant consequences than previously thought. The impact not only altered Dimorphos’s trajectory around its larger companion, Didymos, but also shifted the orbit of the entire binary system around the Sun.

(@konstructivizm via X)

Falcon Heavy launches ViaSat-3 F3

(@nyoomtm via X)

“The only photo from the X-37B secretive space plane…released Feb 2025. Image taken in 2024 when X-37B was in a highly elliptical orbit & over 22,000 miles above Earth…during this mission, X-37B pulled off a first-ever aerobraking maneuver — using the thin drag of Earth’s upper atmosphere to gradually shift its orbit while burning almost no fuel at all.”

(@konstructivizm via X)

“Cool bunch of posters for China space day (24.4), in a kind of retro-futurist, soviet propaganda style, presenting historic and future missions and programmes.” (@AJ_FI via X)