Issue 49

Foreign Affairs: Boots on the Ground, Eyes in the Sky

30 May 2022: Article in Foreign Affairs discusses how commercial satellites are changing conflict. Based largely on the recent experiences of the Ukraine conflict, the article reiterates its authors previous points that commercial satellite imagery is dramatically changing the information landscape, particularly when…

30 May 2022: Article in Foreign Affairs discusses how commercial satellites are changing conflict. Based largely on the recent experiences of the Ukraine conflict, the article reiterates its authors previous points that commercial satellite imagery is dramatically changing the information landscape, particularly when it comes to national security.

– Gone are the days when only governments could collect advanced intelligence about their rivals and when militaries could keep information about battlefield developments concealed from public view.

– Commercial imagery has documented North Korea’s expanding nuclear arsenal and exposed human rights abuses such as China’s detention of the Uyghur population in internment camps.

– Open source information revealed and verified information about military maneuvers, battlefield losses, and Russia’s targeting of civilians.

– Tracking Russian troop movements has certainly aided Ukraine’s targeting of Russian forces…commercial satellite imagery helped give Ukraine an “information advantage on the battlefield [which] is so far countering superior equipment and mass.”

– Support includes real-time data from synthetic aperture radar satellites, which allow users to track military movements occurring under cloud cover and at night.

– Commercial satellite companies will likely play an even greater role during future crises…the Ukraine conflict has underscored their importance in shaping the information environment and enabling military planning. Their consequential role in the Ukraine war will likely deepen partnerships between private firms and governments

– Example: The earliest indicators that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had begun was not from artillery firing or aerial bombardments, but from a traffic jam. Watching live traffic updates on Google Maps, analysts at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey observed unusual congestion along a road from Belgorod, Russia, to the Ukrainian border…The increasingly yellow and red traffic patterns on Google Maps suggested to the researchers that the Russian columns were on the move.

Although states still rely overwhelmingly on covert intelligence-gathering methods, Western governments should be sure to account for the opportunities and risks this evolving technology poses as they craft foreign and national security policy.

Commercial satellite image of a Type 903 aircraft carrier at Jiangnan Shipyard.

Commercial SAR imagery used to observe military activity through cloud cover and at night.

Open-source imagery documenting battlefield activity in Ukraine.

Commercial satellite imagery highlighting military facilities and activity.

Maxar imagery documenting activity at a tactical test site.