Issue 66

30 Jan 2023: The creators of the Dongfang Hour newsletter rebranded as China Space Monitor and examined the growing supply of new, frequently rideshare-focused Chinese launch vehicles and what that could mean for annual satellite and launch totals. Read the China Space Monitor analysis.

– China completed a record 63 launches in 2022, placing roughly 180 spacecraft into orbit. Historically, Chinese rideshare offerings had been limited, but the issue described 2023 as a potential turning point.

– The analysis projected at least 20 rideshare launches with five or more satellites each, potentially allowing Chinese rockets to launch 300-400 spacecraft in 2023, perhaps half for commercial customers.

– CASC launchers such as Long March 8 were expected to become more prominent. Long March 8 had launched 22 satellites on a single 2022 mission.

– CASIC’s commercial spin-off ExPace was expected to contribute with Kuaizhou-1A and the medium-lift Kuaizhou-11 after KZ-11 achieved its first successful launch in Dec 2022.

– Commercial startups were expected to attempt maiden flights of Tianlong-2, Gravity-1 and Darwin-2, with rideshare services central to their business models.

– More launch supply could accelerate semi-commercial constellations including CGSTL/Jilin, Xingyun IoT, Tianqi IoT, CentiSpace remote sensing and Golden Bauhinia.

The issue assesses 2023 as a possible inflection point after roughly eight years of commercial-space investment, with greater production capacity potentially lowering launch costs and increasing available slots.