Issue 94

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

2 Apr 2024: Secure World Foundation (SWF) released their annual open source assessment of Global Counterspace Capabilities. In general, an increasing number of countries are looking to use space to enhance their military capabilities and national security which in turn incentivizes more nations to invest in developing…

2 Apr 2024: Secure World Foundation (SWF) released their annual open source assessment of Global Counterspace Capabilities. In general, an increasing number of countries are looking to use space to enhance their military capabilities and national security which in turn incentivizes more nations to invest in developing counterspace capabilities. While evidence shows “significant research and development of a broad range of destructive and non-destructive counterspace capabilities in multiple countries, only non-destructive capabilities are actively being used against satellites in current military operations.” Executive Summary excerpts below.

-Russia:

  • There is strong evidence that Russia has embarked on a set of programs since 2010 to regain offensive counterspace capabilities.
  • Russia has been testing technologies for RPO in both LEO and GEO that could lead to or support a co-orbital ASAT capability, and some of those efforts have links to a Cold War-era LEO co-orbital ASAT program.
  • In November 2021…Russia successfully demonstrated a DA-ASAT capability against a LEO satellite. It is unclear whether this system, the Nudol, will become operational soon.
  • New evidence suggests Russia may be developing high-powered space-based EW platforms to augment its existing ground-based platforms.
  • Russia is pursuing lofty goals of incorporating EW capabilities throughout its military to both protect its own space-enabled capabilities & degrade or deny those adversary capabilities.

-China

  • China has conducted multiple tests of technologies for close approach and rendezvous in both low-earth orbit (LEO) and geostationary earth orbit (GEO) that could lead to a co-orbital ASAT capability.
  • China has at least one, and possibly as many as three, programs underway to develop DA-ASAT capabilities
  • Chinese DA-ASAT capability against LEO targets is likely mature and may be operationally fielded on mobile launchers.
  • DA-ASAT capability against deep space targets (medium Earth orbit, or MEO, and GEO) is likely still in the experimental or development phase.
  • China designated space as a military domain, & military writings state that the goal of space warfare and operations is to achieve space superiority using offensive/defensive means
  • China’s considerable investment in developing and testing counterspace capabilities suggest they see space as a domain for future conflict
Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report

Christmas in April: SWF Releases 2024 Counterspace Report