Issue 123

8-20 June: As predicted in the last Flash, China maneuvered both SJ-21 (49330) and SJ-25 (62485) into proximity with one another. Both satellites continue to make minor maneuvers and the satellites have ranged in separation from <1km to >100km and it is unknown if they were able to dock with one another (docking is likely required for re-fueling). Tracking the two satellites becomes more challenging once they are within 10km of one another due to resolution limitations of ground based telescopes. COMSPOC noted that the GSSAP satellite USA 270 (41744) adjusted its orbit to remain in proximity of SJ-21/25, likely in order to monitor China’s progress in conducting the world’s first on-orbit refueling in GEO. USA 271 (41645) did not adjust its orbit and is no longer in proximity. Watch COMSPOC Video of maneuvers for all 4 satellites (SJ-21/25 & USA 270/271) from 10-13 June. Also see amazing s2a systems video of close approach. Slingshot Aerospace also put together a video of the point of closest approach. China has not publicly shared any information regarding the ongoing test/demonstration. (I’m here for you guys if you’re willing).

– Per COMSPOC Reporting (current as of 17 Jun 2025):

• SHIJIAN-21 (SJ-21) and SHIJIAN-25 (SJ-25) have been engaged in RPO activity since 11 June, while USA 270 halted its previous eastward drift to position itself within the same longitude slot occupied by the SJ pair.
• On 11 June SJ-25 approached SJ-21, coming within roughly 50 km at approximately 01:21 UTC. Following this initial approach, both satellites executed several smaller maneuvers to closely align their orbital parameters, maintaining a mean longitude slot at~128°.
• SJ-21 and SJ-25 reached their closest proximity on 13 June between approximately 11:30 UTC and 13:00 UTC, after which they separated again. As of 16 June, the inter-satellite distance had increased significantly and is now greater than 100 km.
• Given the relatively short duration (~1.5 hours) of this close encounter, we (COMSPOC) have identified three potential scenarios:
  • SJ-21 and SJ-25 successfully docked during that time period;
  • SJ-21 and SJ-25 conducted a deliberate rehearsal maneuver but did not attempt docking;
  • SJ-21 and SJ-25 initiated a docking attempt but aborted during final approach.
• It remains uncertain whether an actual docking event took place; additional observations will be required to confirm their operational activities and intentions.
• USA 271 continued drifting eastwards and is no longer maintaining proximity to the SJ-21/SJ-25 satellite pair. Conversely, USA 270 has executed several maneuvers, drifting eastward and stopping within the mean longitude slot currently occupied by SJ-21 and SJ-25.

– Reporting from the Joint Commercial Operations Cell from 17-20 Jun has noted an additional 2 maneuvers from SJ-21 and 3 maneuvers from SJ-25. The intent of the maneuvers is unclear.

Editor’s Note: SJ-21 and SJ-25 remain co-planar and continue to maneuver. If necessary, Chinese space operators will be able to attempt additional docking with minor orbital adjustments. An interesting question is what will China do with both satellites post-test. Assuming SJ-25 proves itself as a capable re-fueling platform I would expect China to place the satellite into a more populated orbital plane in order to support additional satellites…this would mean reducing its current inclination from 10.5° to 0-2°. SJ-21 is an even more interesting question. With a full fuel tank will China use the satellite again for a “debris mitigation” demonstration or place it into a more popular orbital plane in order to conduct GEO monitoring/inspection (with a proven “capture/tow” capability)? Plane changes of this magnitude are VERY rare due to the fuel expenditure required…and maybe that’s the point. With refueling capability China can increase the maneuverability of other satellites equipped to dock with SJ-25, leading to previously unseen tactics.

20 Jun: China launched a Long March-3B with the ZhongXing (ChinaSat)-9C satellite from Xichang. ZhongXing (ZX)-9C is a 5.5 ton satellite designed to provide communications services for live television broadcasts for 15 years. China Satellite Communications Co Ltd will operate the satellite and has announced its intention to use ZX-9C to replace the aging ZX-9 (33051) which was launched in 2008. Assuming this is correct, China will place ZX-9C into GEO at ~92.2°E and eventually maneuver ZX-9 into a graveyard orbit. Launch Video.

18 Jun: Russia launched an Angara 5 equipped with a Briz-M upperstage from Plesetsk carrying what is believed to be a 14F166A satellite, aka Cosmos 2589 (64467). Cosmos 2589 was developed at ISS Reshetnev under a December 2017 contract from the Ministry of Defense. Research from Bart Henrdrickx links the development of the Cosmos 2589 with TsNIIKhM (aka CNIIHM Insitute). TsNIIKhM/CNIIHM has been linked to Russian inspection/anti-satellite programs. The Russian Ministry of Defense launch announcement noted the launch of multiple “satellites,” however there is currently only 1 active object identified. The Cosmos 2589 may be a large satellite platform for one or more Nivilir-like “inspectors” or “satellite killers” in GEO (see Cosmos 2519 & Cosmos 2542). This was the 5th launch of the Angara-5. Launch Video.

– Cosmos 2589 is currently in a super-synchronous orbit with an apogee of 51,111.7km and perigee of 20,269.1km. It has an inclination of 1.1°.

– These orbital values are similar to those noted in an environmental statement for the 14F166 project the Angara-5 and Briz-M in 2023.

– From Anatoly Zak:

• Russian authorities disclosed the existence of the 14K248 (Angara-5 & Briz-M) system and its 14F166A spacecraft with the publication of the environmental impact statement at the end of 2023.

• Per the environmental impact statement the orbit would have a perigee of 18,858km and an apogee of 52,728km and be inclined 1.3°. After the separation from the Briz-M in the super-synchronous orbit, the 11F166 satellite (is) expected to use its own SPD-100V low-thrust but highly efficient electric engines to boost the perigee and lower the apogee in order to reach an operational geostationary orbit (this will likely take multiple months).

– The linkage between the Nivilir and 14F166A program stems from a 2017 contract in which a Russian company, ISS Reshetnev, received a contract for a part of the work on the 14F166 satellite from Moscow-based TsNIIKhM. TsNIIKhM is known to specialize in the development of anti-satellite and inspector systems.

– Per Bart Hendrickx:

• “TsNIIKhM (developed the) 14F162 subsatellites (which) appear to be designed for close-up inspections of satellites and, if necessary, their destruction. TsNIIKhM worked on a small satellite that could perform proximity operations in geostationary orbit using astronavigation and machine vision.”
• “14F166…is a fairly heavy satellite…TsNIIKhM’s role in the project may be to build subsatellites that will be deployed from the 14F166 satellites after they reach their destination in geostationary orbit. In other words, the 14F166 satellites would serve as a launch platform for small inspection satellites, in very much the same way that the 14F150 satellites act as parent satellites for the Nivelir subsatellites.”

• “So far everything is pointing in the direction of the payload indeed being 14F166A or 14F166…these are satellites built by ISS Reshetnev on the basis of the Express-2000 platform, but there are strong signs that the project also involves the CNIIHM institute (TsNIIKhM), which has been responsible for building inspection satellites and counterspace weapons. The most plausible explanation is that the ISS Reshetnev satellite carries a CNIIHM (TsNIIKhM) subsatellite that will be released from it after it reaches geostationary orbit. This is in line with the Ministry of Defense’s launch announcement, which talked about (multiple) satellites being on board.”
• “Yet another indication that the payload is 14F166A or 14F166 comes from pictures of the roll-out. The index of the payload fairing can be identified as 14S746. This is the same fairing given in the 14F166(A) documentation. Its dimensions are 4.350×17.705 m and the mass is 2280 kg. This was the first launch that used this particular fairing.”
• “It now remains to be seen how long it will take the satellite (Cosmos 2589) to reach GEO. Two earlier Russian missions have followed this particular insertion profile via a supersynchronous transfer orbit, namely Express-80/103 in 2020 and Express-AMU3/AMU7 in 2021. Both pairs of satellites were based on the lighter Express-1000 platform. The first pair needed about six months to reach GEO (using only SPD-100V electric thrusters) and the second pair about three months (using SDP-100V thrusters and an additional SPD-140D thruster). 14F166A, using the heavier Express-2000 platform, has only SPD-100V engines for this purpose.”

Editor’s Note: This is a significant development which will require careful tracking for the foreseeable future. Russia has already proven its willingness to place suspicious LEO satellites (Cosmos 2558, 2576 and 2588) into co-planar orbits with high-value US reconnaissance satellites, and could follow similar tactics with Cosmos 2589. From reporting noted above Cosmos 2589 is a large satellite carrying an unknown number of sub-satellites manufactured by a Russian company linked to the Nivilir program. After conducting on-orbit testing (this is the first Nivilir-like capability for Russia in GEO), Russia could decide to follow a similar playbook and maneuver the Cosmos 2589 (or its successors) into plane matched orbits with select target satellites in GEO and then release a sub-satellite to hold those assets at risk.

In the 8 Jun edition of the Flash we took a look back at Russia’s Cosmos 2519 on-orbit anti-satellite test from July 2017-June 2018. The follow up test occurred the following year with the launch of Cosmos 2542 in November 2019. Cosmos 2542 would eventually launch a sub-satellite, Cosmos 2543, which then maneuvered to place itself in a position to observe a high-value American satellite USA 245. Below is another excerpt from the most excellent Secure World Foundation (SWF) 2024 Global Counterspace Capabilities Report describing the activities of Cosmos 2542 and its sub-satellites, Cosmos 2543 & Object E from Dec 2019 – Aug 2020.

– On November 25, 2019, Russia conducted another launch of a Soyuz-2-1v from Plesetsk with an announced military payload on board. The satellite was catalogued by the US military as Cosmos 2542 (2019-079A, 44797) in a 97.9° inclination and 370 by 860 km orbit.

– The mission of the satellite as announced by Russia was to conduct space surveillance as well as Earth remote sensing. Outside experts have indicated it (was) likely the second satellite in the Nivelir 14F150 series.

– On December 6, Cosmos 2542 released a small subsatellite that was catalogued by the US military as Cosmos 2543 (2019-079D, 44835) and publicly announced by Russia.

– Cosmos 2543 remained within 2 km of Cosmos 2542 for three days before it conducted a series of maneuvers to raise its apogee to 590 km by December 16.

– Subsequent analysis by amateur observers strongly suggests that the purpose of these maneuvers was to place Cosmos 2543 in an orbit where it (could) observe a classified US intelligence satellite, USA 245 (2013-043A, 39232).

• USA 245 was launched in 2013 and believed to be the latest generation of electro-optical imagery satellite operated by the National Reconnaissance Office.

– The orbits of Cosmos 2543 and USA 245 (were) synchronized such that Cosmos 2543 came within 20 km of USA 245 several times in January 2020.

– After January 2020 Cosmos 2543 periodically came within 150 to 300 km of USA 245 while the latter (was) illuminated by the Sun (enabling Cosmos 2543 to) observe both sides of USA 245 continuously for up to a week at a time.

– The close proximity of Cosmos 2543 to USA 245 sparked concerns from the US military. General John Raymond, then Chief of Space Operations for the USSF and Commander of USSPACECOM, stated, “We view this behavior as unusual and disturbing,” and compared it to the 2017 separation of Cosmos 2523 that the US military considers to be a weapons test.

– In a response published by RIA Novosti, the Russian Foreign Ministry denied those accusations, claimed that they were part of a propaganda campaign against Moscow, and stated that Cosmos 2543 did not pose a threat to USA 245 and did not violate any norms or principles of international law.

– A few weeks later, it appears both countries made changes in their satellites’ orbits to increase the separation of the two objects.

• On March 11, 2020, hobbyist tracking showed USA 245 conducted a small maneuver to increase its distance from Cosmos 2542.
• In late April, Cosmos 2542 lowered its perigee to increase the separation and create a gradual separation in planes between the two satellites.

– Cosmos 2542 was decommissioned in May 2023 and re-entered the atmosphere on October 24, 2023.

– In June 2020, Cosmos 2543 made a series of maneuvers to place it into RPO with Cosmos 2535, including close approaches within 60 kilometers.

– A month later, the Russian Ministry of Defense issued a press report stating that the two satellites had conducted a close-up study of a domestic satellite with the help of specialized equipment on a small satellite.

– On July 15, a small piece of orbital debris was spotted in the vicinity of the two satellites that appeared to have separated from Cosmos 2543 at a relative velocity of between 140 and 186

meters per second (313 to 415 miles per hour).

– The US military catalogued the released object (Object E, 2019-079E, 45915) on July 16 in a 783 x 504 km orbit, with Cosmos 2543 still in a 617 x 603 km orbit. Jonathan McDowell noted

that the release occurred while the objects passed over Plesetsk.

– The event was similar in nature to the release of Cosmos 2523 in October 2017, and eventually, two more pieces of small debris were catalogued in proximity to the satellites.

– In a press release, USSPACECOM characterized the event as a space-based satellite weapons test and stated that the Russian satellites “displayed characteristics of a space-based weapon.”

– The head of the United Kingdom’s Space Directorate, Air Vice Marshal Harvey Smyth, also released a public statement on Twitter expressing concerns and calling on Russia to avoid further

testing.

– The following day, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs again denied those claims, stating that this was part of a campaign to discredit Russia’s activities in space and that Russia was committed to the peaceful exploration and use of outer space by all states.

– Cosmos 2535 and Cosmos 2543 remained in close proximity through August 2020, and by August 13, they were joined by Cosmos 2536.

– In late September 2020, Cosmos 2535 and Cosmos 2536 were close enough that they are presumed to have docked.

– In mid-October, Cosmos 2536 separated away from Cosmos 2535 to a distance of 20 kilometers.

– Cosmos 2543 re-entered the Earth’s atmosphere August 26, 2024.