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Issue 145

04 Debris Analysis · China · LEO

Bad Actor: China’s Dangerous Rocket Body Relics

14 May 2026: Frequent Flash readers are no doubt tracking China’s ongoing efforts to deploy proliferated Low Earth Orbit (pLEO) constellations. Chinese civilian and military leadership have taken note of the military utility provided by SpaceX’s Starlink constellation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and have made PLEO deployment a national priority . The Guowang and Qianfan constellations are at the forefront of Chinese pLEO efforts. Both constellations are in the initial deployment stages: Guowang has 168 satellites on orbit (just over 1% of the planned 13,000 satellite constellation); Qianfan has 144 satellites…

Author Greg Gillinger Published May 18, 2026

14 May 2026: Frequent Flash readers are no doubt tracking China’s ongoing efforts to deploy proliferated Low Earth Orbit (pLEO) constellations. Chinese civilian and military leadership have taken note of the military utility provided by SpaceX’s Starlink constellation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and have made PLEO deployment a national priority. The Guowang and Qianfan constellations are at the forefront of Chinese pLEO efforts. Both constellations are in the initial deployment stages: Guowang has 168 satellites on orbit (just over 1% of the planned 13,000 satellite constellation); Qianfan has 144 satellites on orbit (just under 1% of the planned 15,000 satellite constellation)

Unlike Starlink, which has satellites orbiting ~450km above the Earth, the Guowang and Qianfan satellites are more than 2x higher. Guowang satellites’ operational SMA is 1,149-1,168km, and Qianfan’s desired SMA is 1,069km. China is using a combination of LM-6A, LM-8, LM-12A, and others to deploy Guowang and Qianfan. In order to minimize the need for the satellites to use their fuel for orbit raising, China is utilizing the upper stages of these launch vehicles to drop off their payloads at 800-900km. As a result these massive upper stages are left in orbits which will not decay for 25-100+ years, representing a growing threat to the sustainability of Low Earth Orbit. The LM-6A (also abbreviated CZ-6A) is of particular concern as its upper-stage has shown a propensity to rapidly disassemble while on orbit creating a large number of dangerous non-maneuvering objects which need to be tracked/avoided.

Dr. Darren McKnight of LEO Labs has been sounding the alarm regarding these derelict objects for at least the past 18 months. Thankfully (for me) Dr McKnight is a friend of the Flash and returns my emails! Please see below for his analysis of the unfolding situation. Thank you, Darren!

Per Dr. McKnight:

  • Big Picture: China’s “abandonment of 37 rocket bodies amounting to over 150,000 kg in the last two years, primarily to support the initial deployments of the Guowang and Qianfan constellations, is concerning. This is the same number of rocket bodies and three times the mass than the rest of the world combined has left in the last 15 years in long-lived orbits (i.e. above 650 km which leads to orbital lifetimes of well over 25 years)…if you look at the last 15 years the Chinese have left 90 rocket bodies above 650 km comprising over 300,000 kg while the rest of the world combined has left 33 rocket bodies comprising ~52,000 kg (1/6 of China’s derelict mass “contribution”). That ~300,000 kg from China is 25% of the total abandoned rocket body mass in long-lived orbits of the total population abandoned over the space age.”
  • LM-6A R/B Specifics: “There are currently 23 LM-6A R/Bs in orbit as of 23 Apr 2026, comprising ~133,000 kg of abandoned mass. 20 of these R/Bs (i.e., ~120,000 kg) are stranded in orbits with average altitudes over 650 km, meaning they will remain in orbit for more than 25 years; 10 are above 800 km, meaning they will orbit for over 100 years. Since two of the top four fragmentation clouds in LEO (as measured by current on-orbit number of fragments) are the result of CZ-6A R/B explosions that have occurred in the last four years, this deposition is of extra concern to the spacefaring community.”

Orbit Visualization of Chinese Rocket Bodies in Orbits with SMA > 650km. These Objects will remain on orbit 25-100+ years

(Darren McKnight & saberastro.com)

Tracking information from Dec 2022 showing 350 pieces of debris associated with the LM-6A upper stage break up event. China Launched the LM-6A on 12 Nov 2022 with the Yunhai-3 Satellite. Debris perigee ranges from 320 to 844km.

(spaceaware.io)

China accounts for over~98% of Abandoned Mass Over the Past 2 Years 12 LM-6A R/Bs comprise nearly 93,000 kg (59%)

(Dr Darren McKnight/LEO Labs)

LM-6A Rocket Body in Orbit from October 31, 2023 launch of the Tianhui 5A and 5B satellites. Apogee = 558.9km Perigee = 472.8km

(HEO)