Issue 60

LEO Labs Quarterly Report

18 Oct 2022: LEO Labs released its quarterly LEOReport covering Jun-Sep 2022. The LEOReport examines LEO “Clouds,” “Clusters” and “Constellations,” with a bonus section called “Bad neighborhoods.” CLOUDS - Fragmentation events create “clouds” of fragments that spread rapidly across large volumes in space. Today…

18 Oct 2022: LEO Labs released its quarterly LEOReport covering Jun-Sep 2022. The LEOReport examines LEO “Clouds,” “Clusters” and “Constellations,” with a bonus section called “Bad neighborhoods.”

CLOUDS

– Fragmentation events create “clouds” of fragments that spread rapidly across large volumes in space. Today, three major collision-induced clouds dominate the LEO environment: Fengyun 1C, COSMOS 1408, and COSMOS 2251/Iridium 33.

– From Jun-Sep 2022, the number of COSMOS 1408 debris fragments in orbit continued to decrease (from ~600 to ~500) because of atmospheric drag.

– However, the number of dangerous conjunctions did not decline: ~2,500 occurred in June and ~3,000 were monitored in August. Many of the COSMOS 1408 conjunction events occurred in bunches (described as “squalls” by Dan Oltrogge of COMSPOC). There was one such Squall in mid-August.

– Roughly 45% (47,000 of 107,000) of dangerous events observed during this period involved remnants from just ten breakup events.

Clusters

– Massive derelict objects abandoned in orbit represent a ticking time bomb of debris-generating potential. They currently account for nearly 75% of the total mass in LEO. The are often abandoned in large numbers in similar orbits…forming “clusters.”

– LeoLabs identified the top 50 statistically-most-concerning objects in LEO. While 40 of these objects were abandoned before 2001, the Chinese government has abandoned four rocket bodies in the last decade alone. However, the most populous family of rocket bodies are the 285 Russian SL-8 rocket bodies littered throughout LEO.

– There were also 16 conjunction events involving two massive derelict objects (typically large, abandoned rocket bodies and defunct payloads) that totaled over 15,000kg in combined mass. If any one of these dangerous crossings resulted in a collision, it would likely generate well over 15,000 cataloged fragments – nearly doubling the current catalog.

Constellations

– Nearly 25% of objects in LEO are operational payloads deployed below 1,300km.

– SpaceX’s Starlink remains the largest constellation in LEO with just over 3,000 operational satellites. The largest LEO Spatial density is now at the Starlink altitude (~550km).

– However this is a bit misleading due to the synchronization of active, agile, and station kept satellites, which are distinctly different than a cloud or cluster of debris.

Bad Neighborhoods

– The prototypical “bad neighborhood” is 800-900km. This region consists of a mix of several significant breakup events and hundreds of abandoned derelict objects that together create the greatest debris-generating potential in LEO.

-The closest collision event thus far in 2022 involved COSMOS 2334 and COSMOS 2315, two non-operational payloads deposited in orbit over 25 years ago. The event between these two payloads occurred at an altitude of ~1,000km with a miss distance of 15m and a probability of collision (PC) of 3%.

LeoLabs quarterly LEOReport infographic summarizing clouds, clusters, constellations, and bad neighborhoods in low Earth orbit.