Issue 71

14 Apr 2023: One day following the release of the SWF report, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) released their equally awesome (and considerably shorter) 2023 Space Threat Assessment. The CSIS report also offers a fantastic open-source review of counterspace capabilities and operations. The CSIS report also examines Chinese and Russian space capabilities and this year also contains a chapter dedicated to Russia’s counterspace activities in support of its operations in Ukraine.

RUSSIA:

– Moscow finds itself at an inflection point. Over the past year, Russia continued to display less advanced space and counterspace capabilities than originally anticipated. Advanced counterspace weapons that were promised, such as the Peresvet and Sokol-Eshelon ground-based lasers, are nowhere to be seen on the battlefield despite Russian claims of their success.

– Widespread reports of jamming throughout Eastern Europe have been attributed to Russia, as have several distinct attacks on commercial space architectures, such as Viasat and SpaceX’s Starlink system. Moreover, Moscow continues to play a “cat-and-mouse” game in orbit, using its satellites to shadow other nations’ satellites and creating confusion and concern about the intent of these actions.

– Russia has a long history of unusual and threatening behavior in both LEO and GEO and conducted similar activities in 2022. Luch, Russia’s well-known GEO inspector satellite, maneuvered several times in 2022 to closely approach and loiter near three different Intelsat communications satellites

-Russia has demonstrated significant cyber capabilities, as showcased with its Feb 2022 Viasat hack. Recent reports have emerged on another successful cyber intrusion against a U.S. commercial satellite communications provider.

CHINA:

– Over the past year, China has continued to grow its space and counterspace assets, maintaining its status as the second-most-capable space nation after the United States.

-China maintains an extensive suite of satellite capabilities, including advanced positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT); satellite communications; intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR); missile warning; and space situational awareness. According to a 2022 U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency report, China doubled its number of satellites in orbit between 2019 and 2021, from 250 to 499, and surpassed all but the United States in the number of space startups receiving funding, drawing 16 percent of total global investment in these ventures.

– China maintains a substantial kinetic ASAT capability, most notably demonstrated by a debris-creating 2007 test, as well as numerous subsequent non-intercept tests in the years since.

– Co-orbital technology demonstrations prove China’s ability to rendezvous with other satellites in GEO. While these are not counterspace weapons tests, they demonstrate capability that is necessary for a co-orbital counterspace attack.

-China has ground-based lasers capable of blinding or damaging optical sensors on low-altitude satellites. Chinese universities are also working on small laser devices capable of being mounted on a satellite, though this is not a current capability

-. Previous reporting suggests that SJ-21 performed several RPOs around Compass G2 before docking and moving the defunct satellite into a GEO graveyard orbit, hundreds of kilometers above the traditional GEO belt.50 Updated information showcases that SJ-21 took Compass G2 significantly higher than a typical graveyard orbit, which is highly unusual for a debris removal mission.