Limits of China-Russia Space Cooperation

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China Launches 2 Shiyan 12 Satellites

China launched two Shiyan-12 experimental satellites on a Long March 7A on 23 December 2021, placing both into GEO.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

23 Dec 2021: China launched a new-generation Long March 7A rocket and successfully sent a pair of Shiyan-12 test satellites into geosynchronous transfer orbit. The satellites are stated to be for space-environment studies and related technical tests and were developed by the China Academy of Space Technology (CAST), a CASC subsidiary. Both are now in GEO. See Launch Video.

– This was China’s third launch of the new LM-7A rocket. The first launch failed and the second was successful.

– At 60.7 meters long, the LM-7A used for this dual-satellite launch included an elongated fairing, making it China’s longest rocket. It has a 3.35-meter diameter, four side boosters, and can deliver up to 7 metric tons to GTO.

– The standard LM-7 is used to launch cargo spacecraft to China’s space station. The 7A includes an additional hydrolox stage. CASC plans to perform 3-5 Long March 7A launches a year by 2025, and the vehicle can also be used for lunar and deep-space missions.

– The officially announced purpose of the Shiyan 12 satellites is spatial-environment detection and testing. Open-source discussion has compared the mission with U.S. GSSAP.

– Each satellite weighs about 3 tons. Both were tracked in geostationary orbit near one another on 31 December: Shiyan 12(01) at 94.28°E and Shiyan 12(02) at 94.15°E, over the Indian Ocean just east of Java. Both are inclined about 0.5°.

– This was the third Shiyan launch in three months. Shiyan-10 launched in October 2021 and later raised its orbit successfully. Shiyan-9 and Shiyan-10 remain in GTO-like orbits; Shiyan-9 launched on 11 March 2021 using the LM-7A.

– The Shiyan-11 technology satellite launched to LEO on a Kuaizhou-1A rocket in Nov 2021 and is suspected to have demonstrated Earth-imaging services.

2021 was a highly ambitious year for experimental Chinese space programs: three TJS missions, three Shijian missions, and six Shiyan spacecraft were launched into a variety of orbits.

SY-12(01) and SY-12(02) geostationary position visualization.

Long March 7A / Shiyan-12 launch vehicle.

SY-12(01) and SY-12(02) in GEO as of 31 Dec 2021.

Previous in this issue Issue overview Next in this issue China Launches TJSW-9 Satellite

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China Launches TJSW-9 Satellite

China launched TJSW-9 on 29 December 2021, a CAST-built spacecraft believed to continue a geostationary signals-intelligence series.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

29 Dec 2021: China launched a Long March 3B from Xichang carrying the Tongxin Jishu Shiyan Weixing 9 (TJSW-9) satellite into geostationary transfer orbit. Video.

– The exact purpose of the TJSW series has not been made public. They are described as communication-technology test satellites for radio, TV and general data transmission, but are widely believed to have military roles.

– TJSW-9 was manufactured by CAST. CAST also manufactured TJSW-1 and TJSW-4, which have been associated with signals intelligence and testing multi-band, high-speed military communications. TJSW-9 is believed to continue this series.

– As of 2 January, TJSW-9 remained in GTO.

– China launched TJSW-7 on August 24. That satellite was manufactured by SAST, which also produced TJSW-2, -5 and -6. The SAST satellites are believed to be used for missile detection and early warning, similar to the U.S. SBIRS mission.

The broader TJSW series appears to include different military spacecraft under a common cover designation, including early-warning and signals-intelligence satellites. This mission was China’s 55th and final orbital launch of 2021, the most China had ever completed in a single year.

TJSW-9 Long March 3B launch vehicle.

Sign: “Each screw bolts our aerospace industry; each small button links to national dignity.”

TJSW-9 in geostationary transfer orbit.

Previous in this issue China Launches 2 Shiyan 12 Satellites Next in this issue China Launches Tianhui 4 Cartography Satellite

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China Launches Tianhui 4 Cartography Satellite

China launched the first Tianhui-4 cartography mission on a Long March 2D on 29 December 2021.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

29 Dec 2021: China launched a Long March 2D from Jiuquan carrying the Tianhui 4 cartography satellite to polar orbit. The satellite will be used for Earth observation and mapping for civil and military uses. This is the first satellite of the Tianhui 4 series. Video.

– The name Tianhui translates to “Sky Drawing.” The spacecraft are part of the Ziyuan program to survey Earth for civil and military uses.

– Previous Tianhui spacecraft carried panchromatic cameras with roughly five-meter ground resolution and a multispectral imager with roughly 10-meter resolution.

– The launch announcement mentioned testing a new side-by-side dual-launch adapter but did not mention a second satellite. Two objects were cataloged from the launch. Because the CZ-2D second stage normally deorbits, it is possible Tianhui-4 is actually a pair.

The Tianhui-4 objects occupy orbits similar to the NASA/Germany GRACE and GRACE-FO satellite pairs used to map Earth’s gravitational field.

Tianhui-4 mission patch.

Previous in this issue China Launches TJSW-9 Satellite Next in this issue China Launches Ziyuan-1 02E Satellite

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China Launches Ziyuan-1 02E Satellite

China launched the Ziyuan-1 02E Earth-resources observation satellite from Taiyuan on 26 December 2021.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

26 Dec 2021: China launched a Long March 4C from Taiyuan with the Ziyuan-1(02E) Earth Resources Observation Satellite. Ziyuan, meaning Resource, is a remote-sensing series used to acquire high-resolution imagery for surveying Earth resources, disaster management, ecological monitoring and land-use monitoring. Video.

– Ziyuan-1 02E is believed to be similar to the Ziyuan-1(02D) satellite launched in September 2019. It carries a high-resolution visible and near-infrared camera, a hyperspectral imager, and a new long-wave infrared camera.

– The high-resolution camera can produce imagery up to five-meter resolution in panchromatic mode and up to 10-meter resolution across three multispectral bands. The hyperspectral payload images across 166 spectral bands.

Ten Ziyuan satellites had been launched by this point. Four were part of the China-Brazil Earth Resources Satellite (CBERS) program, while the other six, including Ziyuan-1 02E, were solely Chinese-operated.

Ziyuan-1 02E mission patch.

Ziyuan-1 02E / Long March 4C mission infographic.

Ziyuan-1 02E launch.

Previous in this issue China Launches Tianhui 4 Cartography Satellite Next in this issue Russia Launches Third and Final Angara A5 Demo Mission

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Russia Launches Third and Final Angara A5 Demo Mission

Russia’s third Angara A5 demonstration mission launched on 27 December 2021, but the new Persei upper stage failed during the mission.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

27 Dec 2021: Angara attempted to place a 2,400 kg mass simulator into near-GEO using a new Persei upper stage. Russian reports suggest Persei reached only an initial low-Earth parking orbit before suffering an engine failure. Video.

– Angara is a fully Russian-designed launch vehicle flying from Plesetsk. Development began in 1992 and the family is intended to replace several existing launch vehicles.

– The Persei upper stage failed to perform its second of three planned firings, stranding it in a low parking orbit with a short lifespan.

– Angara’s second flight successfully delivered a 2,400 kg mass simulator to GEO using the BRIZ-M upper stage.

– There was a six-year gap between Angara Flights 1 and 2, and only one year between Flights 2 and 3.

It was not yet known whether the Persei failure would affect the launch schedule. The next known Angara A5 mission was roughly a year and a half away, and Russia formed an investigative commission to examine the failed upper stage.

Angara A5 third demonstration mission.

Previous in this issue China Launches Ziyuan-1 02E Satellite Next in this issue Iran Launches Simorgh, Payloads Likely Fail to Reach Orbit

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Iran Launches Simorgh, Payloads Likely Fail to Reach Orbit

Iran launched a Simorgh rocket with three payloads on 30 December 2021, but reported performance suggested the payloads likely failed to reach orbit.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

30 Dec 2021: Iran announced the launch of a Simorgh rocket from Khomeini Space Center carrying three payloads. Iran reported a velocity of 7350 m/s and altitude of 470km. If this was inertial velocity, it would be insufficient to achieve orbit and the likely trajectory would impact south of Australia about 28 minutes after launch. Video.

– Iranian state TV did not say when the launch occurred or what devices the carrier brought with it.

– A Defence Ministry spokesman said the performance of the space center and launch vehicle was proper and described the launch as “initial,” suggesting additional missions were planned.

– Officials did not confirm that the payloads reached orbit. Iran’s civilian space program has suffered a series of setbacks in recent years, including fatal fires and a launchpad rocket explosion.

– Satellite imagery reviewed by the Associated Press had suggested an imminent launch from Semnan province. The mission occurred without publicly noticed launch restrictions or NOTAMs.

The launch came amid difficult Western-Iranian nuclear negotiations and shortly after a test of 16 short- to medium-range ballistic missiles during a military drill in southern Iran.

Estimated Simorgh trajectory and impact region south of Australia.

Simorgh launch from Khomeini Space Center.

Estimated Simorgh trajectory from Iran.

Simorgh launch vehicle on pad.

Simorgh launch ascent.

Previous in this issue Russia Launches Third and Final Angara A5 Demo Mission Next in this issue One Month after Intercept: Debris Analysis from Russian ASAT Operation

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One Month after Intercept: Debris Analysis from Russian ASAT Operation

LeoLabs’ one-month analysis of the Cosmos 1408 ASAT breakup found evidence consistent with a non-hypervelocity intercept and long-lived debris risk.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

20 Dec 2021: LeoLabs published its third analysis of the 15 Nov 2021 Russian Nudol intercept of Cosmos 1408. Using its S-band radar network, LeoLabs identified about 400kg of debris, or roughly 23% of the spacecraft’s original mass.

– Evidence pointed to a non-hypervelocity collision below about 6 km/s, which would generate fewer but larger fragments. LeoLabs estimated the statistical probability of mission-terminating debris collisions in the 300–800 km altitude region had likely doubled and would remain elevated for years.

– The number of cataloged Cosmos 1408 debris fragments was approaching 500 and expected to continue rising.

– Nine pieces had radar cross sections above 1 m², consistent with large appendages such as antennas, solar arrays and booms. These larger pieces accounted for roughly 400kg of the original 1,750kg satellite mass.

– Applying a typical trackable-debris value of 0.10 m²/kg suggested roughly 2,700 additional fragments could account for the remaining 1,350kg.

– The number of smaller fragments below 10cm remained unknown. Such pieces can still create mission-terminating collision risk but are not reliably cataloged.

LeoLabs assessed that a non-hypervelocity intercept produces fewer fragments, but their greater mass can make them longer-lived. The principal mitigation is improved cataloging and frequent tracking to generate actionable conjunction alerts.

Cosmos 1408 spacecraft.

LeoLabs Active Debris Tracking visualization.

Comparison of non-hypervelocity and hypervelocity collision effects.

Previous in this issue Iran Launches Simorgh, Payloads Likely Fail to Reach Orbit Next in this issue Russian Official News Outlet: “Space, rotting from the inside: Russia is going out of orbit”

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Russian Official News Outlet: “Space, rotting from the inside: Russia is going out of orbit”

A Russian state-aligned newspaper published a strikingly critical assessment of Roscosmos and the broader Russian space program in December 2021.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

17 Dec 2021: Russian state-aligned newspaper Moscovsky Komsomolets published a long and unusually critical article reviewing the state of the Russian space program. Western observers had long described the program as deeply troubled, but the notable point was that a major Russian outlet presented the criticism to a domestic audience.

– The article argued Russia increasingly projects greatness in space through symbolic acts rather than technological achievements, citing a movie-star launch, the Fedor robot and repeated promises of a Moon landing.

– Because the piece appeared in a state-sanctioned newspaper, it was exempt from recently declared restrictions affecting independent media reporting on space activities.

– The article described shortages of skilled staff, obsolete facilities and technology, and systemic leadership weakness. It also argued that some Soyuz and Progress systems still depended on chemical supplies produced by a German company.

– Since 2019, more than 60 criminal investigations were said to have been initiated, with total losses assessed at more than 5 billion rubles.

– Roscosmos repeatedly fell short of announced launch totals: 25 of 44 planned launches in 2019, 17 of 40 in 2020, and fewer than half of 47 planned launches in 2021.

The article portrayed Roscosmos as an increasingly decrepit enterprise with too little investment in current and future capability, high salaries for senior technocrats, and much lower wages for technical specialists who build rockets and spacecraft.

Roscosmos leadership imagery.

Roscosmos.

Russian space-program historical imagery.

Russian space-program facility imagery.

Russian launch / failure imagery used in the article.

Previous in this issue One Month after Intercept: Debris Analysis from Russian ASAT Operation Next in this issue Limits of China-Russia Space Cooperation

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A Modern War Institute article argued that mistrust, technology-transfer concerns and asymmetric resources limit deeper China-Russia space cooperation.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

15 Dec 2021: A Modern War Institute article argued that significant obstacles remain to deeper China-Russia space cooperation. Russian fears of Chinese technological theft and concern about playing second fiddle to China are likely to continue straining the relationship.

– Russia’s ASAT test also demonstrated that Moscow is willing to jeopardize Chinese space interests when doing so serves Russian interests.

– China and Russia have a long but complicated space relationship. Early Chinese space development benefited from Soviet assistance, including technical advisors and an outdated R-2 ballistic missile that China reverse engineered and that contributed to the evolution of its Long March rockets.

– As Sino-Soviet relations deteriorated, China’s space program had to shift toward indigenous development.

– Today, cooperation is driven by aligned interests and a desire to balance the militarily stronger United States, whose military relies heavily on space technologies.

– Important fault lines remain, including nationalism and mistrust. Russia felt burned in the 1990s when China reverse engineered Russian technology, and in 2019 Rostec accused China of copying multiple Russian military systems.

China now has more resources to contribute to future projects such as a planned lunar base, raising concern in Beijing that Russia could free-ride on Chinese contributions.

China-Russia space cooperation.

Previous in this issue Russian Official News Outlet: “Space, rotting from the inside: Russia is going out of orbit” Next in this issue Malaysia Outlines National Space Blueprint

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Malaysia Outlines National Space Blueprint

Malaysia’s Space Exploration 2030 blueprint emphasizes domestic remote-sensing satellite development, component manufacturing and downstream services.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

17 Dec 2021: During a 13 Dec parliamentary hearing, a deputy minister discussed the Malaysia Space Exploration 2030 blueprint from the Ministry of Science, Technology and Innovation. The plan seeks growth in remote-sensing satellites, component manufacturing and downstream services.

– One core initiative seeks to position Malaysia to develop remote-sensing satellites domestically and grow a satellite-component manufacturing industry and data-driven downstream sector.

– Malaysia will seek memoranda of understanding with agencies of excellence in developed countries in space technology.

Malaysia hopes its space sector will contribute about 0.3% of GDP and employ 500 knowledge workers by 2030. The Malaysian Space Agency was established in Dec 2019 by merging ANGKASA and the Malaysian Remote Sensing Agency to improve government space-sector services.

Malaysia national emblem.

Previous in this issue Limits of China-Russia Space Cooperation Next in this issue Updates on Tianlian-2(02) & Shijian 6(05)

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Updates on Tianlian-2(02) & Shijian 6(05)

Late-December updates showed Tianlian-2(02) settling into GEO and the SJ-6(05) pair remaining in lower-than-expected orbits.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

21 Dec 2021: China’s recently launched Tianlian-2(02) relay satellite appeared to have settled into its geostationary orbital slot at 171° west longitude, between Tianlian-1(02) and Tianlian-1(04).

27 Dec 2021: The pair of SJ-6(05) satellites remained in lower-than-expected orbits relative to previous SJ-6 missions. Apogee remained around 468km and perigee around 453km, compared with prior SJ-6 apogees of 582-602km and perigees of 561-574km.

The SJ-6(05) satellites increased their spacing from one another. It was unclear whether the change was caused by a specific maneuver or by small orbital differences.

SJ-6 (05) positions, 28 Dec 2021.

China's relay constellation and TL-2(02) position.

SJ-6 (05) positions, 9 Dec 2021.

Previous in this issue Malaysia Outlines National Space Blueprint Next in this issue Commercial Imagery Reveals Saudi Arabia Producing Ballistic Missiles with Suspected Chinese Assistance

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Commercial Imagery Reveals Saudi Arabia Producing Ballistic Missiles with Suspected Chinese Assistance

Planet imagery provided evidence that Saudi Arabia was producing ballistic missiles at a site associated with prior Chinese assistance.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

23 Dec 2021: Commercial satellite photos taken by Planet between October 26 and November 9 showed a burn operation at a facility near Dawadmi, Saudi Arabia. Researchers at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies described the imagery as the first unambiguous evidence that the facility was operating to produce missiles.

– Analysts said the Saudis were manufacturing ballistic missiles at a site previously constructed with Chinese assistance.

– Little was known publicly about the missiles being built there, including range and payload.

– The facility had been built with Chinese assistance, and intelligence assessments indicated Saudi Arabia had recently purchased sensitive ballistic-missile technology from China. It was possible that missiles produced at the site were of Chinese design.

This was another example of commercial space systems obtaining information that had once been available almost exclusively to national governments.

Commercial imagery of Saudi ballistic-missile production site.

Previous in this issue Updates on Tianlian-2(02) & Shijian 6(05) Next in this issue Pics o’ the week!

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Pics o’ the week!

Pics o' the week: a Soviet seasonal card, French space-defense capabilities, a Mars crater, Voyager’s Golden Record, JWST unfolding humor, teamwork, and Russian seasonal imagery.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

Vintage Soviet Seasonal Card

Future French Space Defense Capabilities — confirms CSO optical satellites capable of satellite-to-satellite imaging.

Crater on Mars

Golden record affixed to Voyager: “This is a present from a small, distant world, a token of our sounds, our science, our images, our music, our thoughts and our feelings. We are attempting to survive our time so we may live into yours.”

On a less serious note… Australia enters the space race.

IKEA Instructions for JWST Unfolding

Teamwork makes the Dream Work

Space is hard… It’s even harder when you’re stupid.

Season’s greetings from the Russian army to U.S. recon satellites.