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Issue 38

07 Flash Archive · Members Only

One Month after Intercept: Debris Analysis from Russian ASAT Operation

LeoLabs’ one-month analysis of the Cosmos 1408 ASAT breakup found evidence consistent with a non-hypervelocity intercept and long-lived debris risk.

Author Minhas Published January 2, 2022

20 Dec 2021: LeoLabs published its third analysis of the 15 Nov 2021 Russian Nudol intercept of Cosmos 1408. Using its S-band radar network, LeoLabs identified about 400kg of debris, or roughly 23% of the spacecraft’s original mass.

– Evidence pointed to a non-hypervelocity collision below about 6 km/s, which would generate fewer but larger fragments. LeoLabs estimated the statistical probability of mission-terminating debris collisions in the 300–800 km altitude region had likely doubled and would remain elevated for years.

– The number of cataloged Cosmos 1408 debris fragments was approaching 500 and expected to continue rising.

– Nine pieces had radar cross sections above 1 m², consistent with large appendages such as antennas, solar arrays and booms. These larger pieces accounted for roughly 400kg of the original 1,750kg satellite mass.

– Applying a typical trackable-debris value of 0.10 m²/kg suggested roughly 2,700 additional fragments could account for the remaining 1,350kg.

– The number of smaller fragments below 10cm remained unknown. Such pieces can still create mission-terminating collision risk but are not reliably cataloged.

LeoLabs assessed that a non-hypervelocity intercept produces fewer fragments, but their greater mass can make them longer-lived. The principal mitigation is improved cataloging and frequent tracking to generate actionable conjunction alerts.

Cosmos 1408 spacecraft.

Cosmos 1408 spacecraft.

LeoLabs Active Debris Tracking visualization.

LeoLabs Active Debris Tracking visualization.

Comparison of non-hypervelocity and hypervelocity collision effects.

Comparison of non-hypervelocity and hypervelocity collision effects.