Issue 39

COMSpOC Analysis of Russian ASAT Debris

COMSpOC assessed thousands of close approaches generated by Cosmos 1408 debris and projected years of elevated collision risk.

4 Jan 2022: The Commercial Space Operations Center (COMSPOC) released analysis of the debris risk created by Russia’s Nov. 15 ASAT test. COMSpOC analysis.

– Debris was expected to continue threatening satellites and the International Space Station for several years.

– COMSpOC reported that the bulk of roughly 1,500 pieces then being tracked by U.S. Space Command’s 18th Space Control Squadron would deorbit within about three years.

– Analysis showed 8,917 likely conjunctions closer than 5km between satellites and ASAT debris during the first week of Jan 2022.

– The analysis projected 24,958 conjunctions closer than 5km involving Starlink satellites.

The satellite described as most imperiled during the first 24 hours after the intercept was the U.S. DMSP 5D-3 F18 weather satellite.

COMSpOC / Russian ASAT debris analysis graphic.